← Back
"""
Optimal Grid Backtest — Fixed 0.3% spacing + Sideways filter + NATR filter

Лучшие параметры из предыдущих тестов:
  - Spacing: 0.3% fixed
  - Sideways score >= 45 (15m screener)
  - NATR(5m) 0.3-0.5% (sweet spot)

Сравниваем комбинации:
  A) 0.3% + score>=45 (без NATR фильтра) — baseline filtered
  B) 0.3% + score>=45 + NATR 0.25-0.55% — широкий NATR
  C) 0.3% + score>=45 + NATR 0.30-0.50% — узкий NATR
  D) 0.3% + NATR 0.30-0.50% (без score) — только NATR
  E) 0.3% + score>=45 + NATR 0.25-0.55% + range_pos 0.25-0.75 — full combo

Usage: python3 backtest_optimal_grid.py
"""

import requests
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import time
import json
from datetime import datetime
from pathlib import Path

# ============================================================
# CONFIG
# ============================================================
SYMBOLS = [
    "ETHUSDT", "DOGEUSDT", "PENGUUSDT", "ENAUSDT",
    "NEARUSDT", "WLDUSDT", "SOLUSDT", "ARBUSDT",
    "XRPUSDT", "LINKUSDT", "SUIUSDT", "OPUSDT",
    "ADAUSDT", "UNIUSDT", "AVAXUSDT",
]

DAYS_BACK = 14
LEVERAGE = 10
POSITION_SIZE_USD = 3.0
FEE_PCT = 0.02 / 100
GRID_LEVELS = 8
GRID_SPACING_PCT = 0.3  # optimal from prev test
MAX_LOSS_PCT = 3.0

SESSION_CANDLES = 60
SESSION_COOLDOWN = 5

BB_PERIOD = 20
BB_STD = 2.0
ADX_PERIOD = 14
NATR_PERIOD = 14
RANGE_LOOKBACK = 24

# Filter combos
COMBOS = [
    {
        'name': 'A: score>=45',
        'score_min': 45, 'natr_min': 0, 'natr_max': 99, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1,
    },
    {
        'name': 'B: score>=45 + NATR .25-.55',
        'score_min': 45, 'natr_min': 0.25, 'natr_max': 0.55, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1,
    },
    {
        'name': 'C: score>=45 + NATR .30-.50',
        'score_min': 45, 'natr_min': 0.30, 'natr_max': 0.50, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1,
    },
    {
        'name': 'D: NATR .30-.50 only',
        'score_min': 0, 'natr_min': 0.30, 'natr_max': 0.50, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1,
    },
    {
        'name': 'E: full combo',
        'score_min': 45, 'natr_min': 0.25, 'natr_max': 0.55, 'rp_min': 0.25, 'rp_max': 0.75,
    },
    {
        'name': 'F: score>=55 + NATR .25-.55',
        'score_min': 55, 'natr_min': 0.25, 'natr_max': 0.55, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1,
    },
    {
        'name': 'BASELINE: no filter',
        'score_min': 0, 'natr_min': 0, 'natr_max': 99, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1,
    },
]


def fetch_klines(symbol, interval, days_back):
    url = "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines"
    end_ts = int(time.time() * 1000)
    start_ts = int((time.time() - days_back * 86400) * 1000)
    all_candles = []
    current_start = start_ts
    while current_start < end_ts:
        params = {"symbol": symbol, "interval": interval,
                  "startTime": current_start, "limit": 1500}
        try:
            resp = requests.get(url, params=params, timeout=10)
            data = resp.json()
            if not isinstance(data, list) or len(data) == 0:
                break
            all_candles.extend(data)
            current_start = data[-1][0] + 1
            time.sleep(0.08)
        except Exception as e:
            time.sleep(1)
            continue
    df = pd.DataFrame(all_candles, columns=[
        'timestamp', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume',
        'close_time', 'quote_volume', 'trades', 'taker_buy_base',
        'taker_buy_quote', 'ignore'
    ])
    for col in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume', 'quote_volume']:
        df[col] = df[col].astype(float)
    df['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(df['timestamp'], unit='ms')
    df = df.drop_duplicates(subset='timestamp').sort_values('timestamp').reset_index(drop=True)
    return df


def calc_natr_5m(df_1m):
    df = df_1m.set_index('timestamp').resample('5min').agg({
        'open': 'first', 'high': 'max', 'low': 'min',
        'close': 'last', 'volume': 'sum'
    }).dropna().reset_index()
    h, l, c = df['high'], df['low'], df['close']
    tr = pd.concat([h - l, (h - c.shift(1)).abs(), (l - c.shift(1)).abs()], axis=1).max(axis=1)
    atr = tr.ewm(alpha=1/NATR_PERIOD, min_periods=NATR_PERIOD).mean()
    df['natr_5m'] = (atr / c) * 100
    return df[['timestamp', 'natr_5m']].dropna()


def calc_screener(df):
    df['bb_mid'] = df['close'].rolling(BB_PERIOD).mean()
    df['bb_std'] = df['close'].rolling(BB_PERIOD).std()
    df['bb_upper'] = df['bb_mid'] + BB_STD * df['bb_std']
    df['bb_lower'] = df['bb_mid'] - BB_STD * df['bb_std']
    df['bb_width'] = ((df['bb_upper'] - df['bb_lower']) / df['bb_mid']) * 100

    h, l, c = df['high'], df['low'], df['close']
    plus_dm = h.diff()
    minus_dm = -l.diff()
    plus_dm = plus_dm.where((plus_dm > minus_dm) & (plus_dm > 0), 0.0)
    minus_dm = minus_dm.where((minus_dm > plus_dm) & (minus_dm > 0), 0.0)
    tr = pd.concat([h - l, (h - c.shift(1)).abs(), (l - c.shift(1)).abs()], axis=1).max(axis=1)
    atr = tr.ewm(alpha=1/ADX_PERIOD, min_periods=ADX_PERIOD).mean()
    plus_di = 100 * (plus_dm.ewm(alpha=1/ADX_PERIOD, min_periods=ADX_PERIOD).mean() / atr)
    minus_di = 100 * (minus_dm.ewm(alpha=1/ADX_PERIOD, min_periods=ADX_PERIOD).mean() / atr)
    dx = 100 * (plus_di - minus_di).abs() / (plus_di + minus_di + 1e-10)
    df['adx'] = dx.ewm(alpha=1/ADX_PERIOD, min_periods=ADX_PERIOD).mean()
    df['natr'] = (atr / c) * 100

    df['range_high'] = df['high'].rolling(RANGE_LOOKBACK).max()
    df['range_low'] = df['low'].rolling(RANGE_LOOKBACK).min()
    rng = df['range_high'] - df['range_low']
    df['range_pos'] = (df['close'] - df['range_low']) / rng.replace(0, np.nan)

    df['candle_dir'] = np.where(df['close'] > df['open'], 1, -1)
    df['dir_change'] = (df['candle_dir'] != df['candle_dir'].shift(1)).astype(int)
    df['dir_changes'] = df['dir_change'].rolling(RANGE_LOOKBACK).sum()
    return df


def sideways_score(row):
    score = 0
    adx = row.get('adx', np.nan)
    bb_w = row.get('bb_width', np.nan)
    rp = row.get('range_pos', np.nan)
    dc = row.get('dir_changes', np.nan)
    natr = row.get('natr', np.nan)
    if any(pd.isna(x) for x in [adx, bb_w, rp, dc, natr]):
        return 0

    if adx <= 5: score += 25
    elif adx <= 20: score += 25 * (1 - (adx - 5) / 15)
    elif adx <= 30: score += max(0, -5 * (adx - 20) / 10)
    else: score -= 10

    if 1.5 <= bb_w <= 4.0:
        score += 20 * (bb_w - 1.5) / 1.0 if bb_w <= 2.5 else 20 * (4.0 - bb_w) / 1.5
    elif 0.5 <= bb_w < 1.5:
        score += 5

    if 0.3 <= rp <= 0.7:
        score += 20 * (1 - abs(rp - 0.5) / 0.2)
    elif 0.2 <= rp < 0.3 or 0.7 < rp <= 0.8:
        score += 5

    max_ch = RANGE_LOOKBACK * 0.7
    if dc >= 8:
        score += min(20, 20 * (dc - 8) / (max_ch - 8))

    if 0.15 <= natr <= 0.6:
        score += 15 * (natr - 0.15) / 0.15 if natr <= 0.3 else 15 * (0.6 - natr) / 0.3
    elif 0.1 <= natr < 0.15:
        score += 3

    return max(0, round(score, 1))


def run_grid_session(df_1m, start_idx):
    if start_idx + 5 >= len(df_1m):
        return None
    end_idx = min(start_idx + SESSION_CANDLES, len(df_1m) - 1)
    mid_price = df_1m['close'].iloc[start_idx]

    buy_levels = [mid_price * (1 - lvl * GRID_SPACING_PCT / 100) for lvl in range(1, GRID_LEVELS + 1)]
    sell_levels = [mid_price * (1 + lvl * GRID_SPACING_PCT / 100) for lvl in range(1, GRID_LEVELS + 1)]

    buy_fills = [False] * GRID_LEVELS
    sell_fills = [False] * GRID_LEVELS
    positions = []
    pnl = 0.0
    fees = 0.0
    trades = 0
    round_trips = 0
    max_capital = GRID_LEVELS * 2 * POSITION_SIZE_USD
    max_loss = max_capital * MAX_LOSS_PCT / 100
    close_reason = 'timeout'

    for j in range(start_idx + 1, end_idx):
        price = df_1m['close'].iloc[j]
        lo = df_1m['low'].iloc[j]
        hi = df_1m['high'].iloc[j]

        for lvl in range(GRID_LEVELS):
            if not buy_fills[lvl] and lo <= buy_levels[lvl]:
                buy_fills[lvl] = True
                positions.append(('long', buy_levels[lvl]))
                fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT
                trades += 1
        for lvl in range(GRID_LEVELS):
            if not sell_fills[lvl] and hi >= sell_levels[lvl]:
                sell_fills[lvl] = True
                positions.append(('short', sell_levels[lvl]))
                fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT
                trades += 1

        for lvl in range(GRID_LEVELS):
            if buy_fills[lvl] and sell_fills[lvl]:
                spread = sell_levels[lvl] - buy_levels[lvl]
                qty = (POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE) / buy_levels[lvl]
                pnl += qty * spread
                fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT * 2
                buy_fills[lvl] = False
                sell_fills[lvl] = False
                round_trips += 1
                positions = [p for p in positions if not (p[0] == 'long' and abs(p[1] - buy_levels[lvl]) < 1e-10)]
                positions = [p for p in positions if not (p[0] == 'short' and abs(p[1] - sell_levels[lvl]) < 1e-10)]

        unrealized = 0
        for side, entry_px in positions:
            qty = (POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE) / entry_px
            if side == 'long':
                unrealized += qty * (price - entry_px)
            else:
                unrealized += qty * (entry_px - price)

        if pnl + unrealized - fees < -max_loss and positions:
            for side, entry_px in positions:
                qty = (POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE) / entry_px
                if side == 'long':
                    pnl += qty * (price - entry_px)
                else:
                    pnl += qty * (entry_px - price)
                fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT
            positions = []
            close_reason = 'max_loss'
            break

    if positions:
        price = df_1m['close'].iloc[min(end_idx, len(df_1m) - 1)]
        for side, entry_px in positions:
            qty = (POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE) / entry_px
            if side == 'long':
                pnl += qty * (price - entry_px)
            else:
                pnl += qty * (entry_px - price)
            fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT

    net = pnl - fees
    if trades == 0:
        return None

    return {
        'pnl': round(net, 4),
        'trades': trades,
        'round_trips': round_trips,
        'fees': round(fees, 4),
        'close_reason': close_reason,
    }


# ============================================================
# MAIN
# ============================================================
if __name__ == "__main__":
    print("=" * 75)
    print("  OPTIMAL GRID — 0.3% spacing + filters")
    print(f"  {len(SYMBOLS)} coins | {DAYS_BACK}d | 10x | 8 lvl × $3 × 0.3%")
    print("=" * 75)

    # Per-combo results
    combo_results = {c['name']: [] for c in COMBOS}

    for sym in SYMBOLS:
        print(f"\n  📊 {sym}...", end=" ", flush=True)

        df_1m = fetch_klines(sym, '1m', DAYS_BACK)
        if len(df_1m) < 1000:
            print("skip")
            continue

        df_natr5 = calc_natr_5m(df_1m)
        df_15m = fetch_klines(sym, '15m', DAYS_BACK)
        df_15m = calc_screener(df_15m)
        df_15m['sw_score'] = df_15m.apply(sideways_score, axis=1)

        natr_lookup = df_natr5.set_index('timestamp')['natr_5m']

        # Also get range_pos from 15m for combo E
        rp_lookup = df_15m.set_index('timestamp')['range_pos']

        i = 100
        win_count = 0
        while i + SESSION_CANDLES < len(df_1m):
            ts = df_1m['timestamp'].iloc[i]

            # Get NATR
            nm = natr_lookup.index <= ts
            if nm.sum() == 0:
                i += SESSION_CANDLES + SESSION_COOLDOWN
                continue
            current_natr = natr_lookup.loc[nm].iloc[-1]
            if pd.isna(current_natr):
                i += SESSION_CANDLES + SESSION_COOLDOWN
                continue

            # Get score & range_pos
            sm = df_15m['timestamp'] <= ts
            if sm.sum() == 0:
                i += SESSION_CANDLES + SESSION_COOLDOWN
                continue
            scr_row = df_15m.loc[sm].iloc[-1]
            score = scr_row['sw_score']
            range_pos = scr_row['range_pos'] if not pd.isna(scr_row['range_pos']) else 0.5

            # Run grid once (same for all combos — same spacing)
            result = run_grid_session(df_1m, i)

            if result:
                result['symbol'] = sym
                result['natr_5m'] = round(current_natr, 3)
                result['sw_score'] = round(score, 1)
                result['range_pos'] = round(range_pos, 2)
                result['ts'] = str(ts)

                # Assign to matching combos
                for c in COMBOS:
                    if (score >= c['score_min'] and
                        c['natr_min'] <= current_natr <= c['natr_max'] and
                        c['rp_min'] <= range_pos <= c['rp_max']):
                        combo_results[c['name']].append(result)

            win_count += 1
            i += SESSION_CANDLES + SESSION_COOLDOWN

        print(f"{win_count} windows")

    # ============================================================
    # REPORT
    # ============================================================
    print("\n" + "=" * 75)
    print("  🏆 РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ — СРАВНЕНИЕ КОМБИНАЦИЙ ФИЛЬТРОВ")
    print("=" * 75)
    print(f"\n  {'Combo':<32} {'Sess':>5} {'WR':>6} {'PnL':>10} {'Avg':>9} {'$/day':>7} {'RTs':>5} {'ML':>4}")
    print(f"  {'─'*78}")

    best_name = None
    best_avg = -999

    for c in COMBOS:
        name = c['name']
        sess = combo_results[name]
        if not sess:
            print(f"  {name:<32} {'—':>5}")
            continue

        total_pnl = sum(s['pnl'] for s in sess)
        wins = len([s for s in sess if s['pnl'] > 0])
        wr = 100 * wins / len(sess)
        avg = total_pnl / len(sess)
        rts = sum(s['round_trips'] for s in sess)
        ml = len([s for s in sess if s['close_reason'] == 'max_loss'])
        per_day = total_pnl / DAYS_BACK

        emoji = '🟢' if total_pnl > 0 else '🔴'
        print(f"  {emoji} {name:<30} {len(sess):>5} {wr:>5.0f}% ${total_pnl:>8.2f} ${avg:>7.4f} ${per_day:>5.2f} {rts:>5} {ml:>4}")

        if avg > best_avg and c['name'] != 'BASELINE: no filter':
            best_avg = avg
            best_name = name

    # Detailed analysis of best combo
    if best_name:
        print(f"\n{'='*75}")
        print(f"  🥇 ЛУЧШИЙ: {best_name}")
        print(f"{'='*75}")

        sess = combo_results[best_name]
        total_pnl = sum(s['pnl'] for s in sess)
        wins = [s for s in sess if s['pnl'] > 0]
        losses = [s for s in sess if s['pnl'] <= 0]

        print(f"  Sessions: {len(sess)} | WR: {100*len(wins)/len(sess):.0f}%")
        print(f"  Total PnL: ${total_pnl:.4f} | Per day: ${total_pnl/DAYS_BACK:.2f}")
        print(f"  Per week: ${total_pnl/DAYS_BACK*7:.2f} | Per month (est): ${total_pnl/DAYS_BACK*30:.2f}")
        if wins:
            print(f"  Avg win: ${sum(s['pnl'] for s in wins)/len(wins):.4f}")
        if losses:
            print(f"  Avg loss: ${sum(s['pnl'] for s in losses)/len(losses):.4f}")

        # Profit factor
        gross_wins = sum(s['pnl'] for s in wins) if wins else 0
        gross_losses = abs(sum(s['pnl'] for s in losses)) if losses else 1
        pf = gross_wins / gross_losses if gross_losses > 0 else 0
        print(f"  Profit factor: {pf:.2f}")

        # Equity curve stats
        equity = [0]
        for s in sess:
            equity.append(equity[-1] + s['pnl'])
        eq = np.array(equity)
        peak = np.maximum.accumulate(eq)
        dd = eq - peak
        max_dd = dd.min()
        print(f"  Max drawdown: ${max_dd:.4f}")
        print(f"  Final equity: ${eq[-1]:.4f}")

        # Per-symbol
        print(f"\n  Per-symbol:")
        print(f"  {'Symbol':<12} {'Sess':>5} {'WR':>6} {'PnL':>10} {'RTs':>5}")
        print(f"  {'─'*38}")
        syms = sorted(set(s['symbol'] for s in sess))
        for sym in syms:
            sub = [s for s in sess if s['symbol'] == sym]
            tp = sum(s['pnl'] for s in sub)
            w = len([s for s in sub if s['pnl'] > 0])
            wr = 100 * w / len(sub) if sub else 0
            rt = sum(s['round_trips'] for s in sub)
            e = '🟢' if tp > 0 else '🔴'
            print(f"  {e} {sym:<10} {len(sub):>5} {wr:>5.0f}% ${tp:>8.2f} {rt:>5}")

        # Time-of-day analysis
        print(f"\n  By hour (UTC):")
        hour_data = {}
        for s in sess:
            h = pd.Timestamp(s['ts']).hour
            if h not in hour_data:
                hour_data[h] = []
            hour_data[h].append(s['pnl'])

        print(f"  {'Hour':>4} {'Sess':>5} {'WR':>6} {'PnL':>10}")
        print(f"  {'─'*27}")
        for h in sorted(hour_data.keys()):
            vals = hour_data[h]
            tp = sum(vals)
            w = len([v for v in vals if v > 0])
            wr = 100 * w / len(vals) if vals else 0
            e = '🟢' if tp > 0 else '⚪'
            print(f"  {e} {h:>3}h {len(vals):>5} {wr:>5.0f}% ${tp:>8.3f}")

    # Save
    output = {
        'config': {
            'symbols': SYMBOLS, 'days_back': DAYS_BACK,
            'grid_levels': GRID_LEVELS, 'spacing': GRID_SPACING_PCT,
            'position_size': POSITION_SIZE_USD, 'leverage': LEVERAGE,
        },
        'combos': {name: {
            'sessions': len(combo_results[name]),
            'total_pnl': round(sum(s['pnl'] for s in combo_results[name]), 4) if combo_results[name] else 0,
            'win_rate': round(100 * len([s for s in combo_results[name] if s['pnl'] > 0]) / max(len(combo_results[name]), 1), 1),
        } for name in combo_results},
        'best_combo': best_name,
        'tested_at': datetime.now().isoformat(),
    }
    out_path = Path(__file__).parent / 'results_optimal_grid.json'
    with open(out_path, 'w') as f:
        json.dump(output, f, indent=2)
    print(f"\n💾 {out_path}")

📜 Git History

c6f6bd5chore: initial commit — version control setup5 weeks ago
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