← Назад
""" Optimal Grid Backtest — Fixed 0.3% spacing + Sideways filter + NATR filter Лучшие параметры из предыдущих тестов: - Spacing: 0.3% fixed - Sideways score >= 45 (15m screener) - NATR(5m) 0.3-0.5% (sweet spot) Сравниваем комбинации: A) 0.3% + score>=45 (без NATR фильтра) — baseline filtered B) 0.3% + score>=45 + NATR 0.25-0.55% — широкий NATR C) 0.3% + score>=45 + NATR 0.30-0.50% — узкий NATR D) 0.3% + NATR 0.30-0.50% (без score) — только NATR E) 0.3% + score>=45 + NATR 0.25-0.55% + range_pos 0.25-0.75 — full combo Usage: python3 backtest_optimal_grid.py """ import requests import pandas as pd import numpy as np import time import json from datetime import datetime from pathlib import Path # ============================================================ # CONFIG # ============================================================ SYMBOLS = [ "ETHUSDT", "DOGEUSDT", "PENGUUSDT", "ENAUSDT", "NEARUSDT", "WLDUSDT", "SOLUSDT", "ARBUSDT", "XRPUSDT", "LINKUSDT", "SUIUSDT", "OPUSDT", "ADAUSDT", "UNIUSDT", "AVAXUSDT", ] DAYS_BACK = 14 LEVERAGE = 10 POSITION_SIZE_USD = 3.0 FEE_PCT = 0.02 / 100 GRID_LEVELS = 8 GRID_SPACING_PCT = 0.3 # optimal from prev test MAX_LOSS_PCT = 3.0 SESSION_CANDLES = 60 SESSION_COOLDOWN = 5 BB_PERIOD = 20 BB_STD = 2.0 ADX_PERIOD = 14 NATR_PERIOD = 14 RANGE_LOOKBACK = 24 # Filter combos COMBOS = [ { 'name': 'A: score>=45', 'score_min': 45, 'natr_min': 0, 'natr_max': 99, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1, }, { 'name': 'B: score>=45 + NATR .25-.55', 'score_min': 45, 'natr_min': 0.25, 'natr_max': 0.55, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1, }, { 'name': 'C: score>=45 + NATR .30-.50', 'score_min': 45, 'natr_min': 0.30, 'natr_max': 0.50, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1, }, { 'name': 'D: NATR .30-.50 only', 'score_min': 0, 'natr_min': 0.30, 'natr_max': 0.50, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1, }, { 'name': 'E: full combo', 'score_min': 45, 'natr_min': 0.25, 'natr_max': 0.55, 'rp_min': 0.25, 'rp_max': 0.75, }, { 'name': 'F: score>=55 + NATR .25-.55', 'score_min': 55, 'natr_min': 0.25, 'natr_max': 0.55, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1, }, { 'name': 'BASELINE: no filter', 'score_min': 0, 'natr_min': 0, 'natr_max': 99, 'rp_min': 0, 'rp_max': 1, }, ] def fetch_klines(symbol, interval, days_back): url = "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines" end_ts = int(time.time() * 1000) start_ts = int((time.time() - days_back * 86400) * 1000) all_candles = [] current_start = start_ts while current_start < end_ts: params = {"symbol": symbol, "interval": interval, "startTime": current_start, "limit": 1500} try: resp = requests.get(url, params=params, timeout=10) data = resp.json() if not isinstance(data, list) or len(data) == 0: break all_candles.extend(data) current_start = data[-1][0] + 1 time.sleep(0.08) except Exception as e: time.sleep(1) continue df = pd.DataFrame(all_candles, columns=[ 'timestamp', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume', 'close_time', 'quote_volume', 'trades', 'taker_buy_base', 'taker_buy_quote', 'ignore' ]) for col in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume', 'quote_volume']: df[col] = df[col].astype(float) df['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(df['timestamp'], unit='ms') df = df.drop_duplicates(subset='timestamp').sort_values('timestamp').reset_index(drop=True) return df def calc_natr_5m(df_1m): df = df_1m.set_index('timestamp').resample('5min').agg({ 'open': 'first', 'high': 'max', 'low': 'min', 'close': 'last', 'volume': 'sum' }).dropna().reset_index() h, l, c = df['high'], df['low'], df['close'] tr = pd.concat([h - l, (h - c.shift(1)).abs(), (l - c.shift(1)).abs()], axis=1).max(axis=1) atr = tr.ewm(alpha=1/NATR_PERIOD, min_periods=NATR_PERIOD).mean() df['natr_5m'] = (atr / c) * 100 return df[['timestamp', 'natr_5m']].dropna() def calc_screener(df): df['bb_mid'] = df['close'].rolling(BB_PERIOD).mean() df['bb_std'] = df['close'].rolling(BB_PERIOD).std() df['bb_upper'] = df['bb_mid'] + BB_STD * df['bb_std'] df['bb_lower'] = df['bb_mid'] - BB_STD * df['bb_std'] df['bb_width'] = ((df['bb_upper'] - df['bb_lower']) / df['bb_mid']) * 100 h, l, c = df['high'], df['low'], df['close'] plus_dm = h.diff() minus_dm = -l.diff() plus_dm = plus_dm.where((plus_dm > minus_dm) & (plus_dm > 0), 0.0) minus_dm = minus_dm.where((minus_dm > plus_dm) & (minus_dm > 0), 0.0) tr = pd.concat([h - l, (h - c.shift(1)).abs(), (l - c.shift(1)).abs()], axis=1).max(axis=1) atr = tr.ewm(alpha=1/ADX_PERIOD, min_periods=ADX_PERIOD).mean() plus_di = 100 * (plus_dm.ewm(alpha=1/ADX_PERIOD, min_periods=ADX_PERIOD).mean() / atr) minus_di = 100 * (minus_dm.ewm(alpha=1/ADX_PERIOD, min_periods=ADX_PERIOD).mean() / atr) dx = 100 * (plus_di - minus_di).abs() / (plus_di + minus_di + 1e-10) df['adx'] = dx.ewm(alpha=1/ADX_PERIOD, min_periods=ADX_PERIOD).mean() df['natr'] = (atr / c) * 100 df['range_high'] = df['high'].rolling(RANGE_LOOKBACK).max() df['range_low'] = df['low'].rolling(RANGE_LOOKBACK).min() rng = df['range_high'] - df['range_low'] df['range_pos'] = (df['close'] - df['range_low']) / rng.replace(0, np.nan) df['candle_dir'] = np.where(df['close'] > df['open'], 1, -1) df['dir_change'] = (df['candle_dir'] != df['candle_dir'].shift(1)).astype(int) df['dir_changes'] = df['dir_change'].rolling(RANGE_LOOKBACK).sum() return df def sideways_score(row): score = 0 adx = row.get('adx', np.nan) bb_w = row.get('bb_width', np.nan) rp = row.get('range_pos', np.nan) dc = row.get('dir_changes', np.nan) natr = row.get('natr', np.nan) if any(pd.isna(x) for x in [adx, bb_w, rp, dc, natr]): return 0 if adx <= 5: score += 25 elif adx <= 20: score += 25 * (1 - (adx - 5) / 15) elif adx <= 30: score += max(0, -5 * (adx - 20) / 10) else: score -= 10 if 1.5 <= bb_w <= 4.0: score += 20 * (bb_w - 1.5) / 1.0 if bb_w <= 2.5 else 20 * (4.0 - bb_w) / 1.5 elif 0.5 <= bb_w < 1.5: score += 5 if 0.3 <= rp <= 0.7: score += 20 * (1 - abs(rp - 0.5) / 0.2) elif 0.2 <= rp < 0.3 or 0.7 < rp <= 0.8: score += 5 max_ch = RANGE_LOOKBACK * 0.7 if dc >= 8: score += min(20, 20 * (dc - 8) / (max_ch - 8)) if 0.15 <= natr <= 0.6: score += 15 * (natr - 0.15) / 0.15 if natr <= 0.3 else 15 * (0.6 - natr) / 0.3 elif 0.1 <= natr < 0.15: score += 3 return max(0, round(score, 1)) def run_grid_session(df_1m, start_idx): if start_idx + 5 >= len(df_1m): return None end_idx = min(start_idx + SESSION_CANDLES, len(df_1m) - 1) mid_price = df_1m['close'].iloc[start_idx] buy_levels = [mid_price * (1 - lvl * GRID_SPACING_PCT / 100) for lvl in range(1, GRID_LEVELS + 1)] sell_levels = [mid_price * (1 + lvl * GRID_SPACING_PCT / 100) for lvl in range(1, GRID_LEVELS + 1)] buy_fills = [False] * GRID_LEVELS sell_fills = [False] * GRID_LEVELS positions = [] pnl = 0.0 fees = 0.0 trades = 0 round_trips = 0 max_capital = GRID_LEVELS * 2 * POSITION_SIZE_USD max_loss = max_capital * MAX_LOSS_PCT / 100 close_reason = 'timeout' for j in range(start_idx + 1, end_idx): price = df_1m['close'].iloc[j] lo = df_1m['low'].iloc[j] hi = df_1m['high'].iloc[j] for lvl in range(GRID_LEVELS): if not buy_fills[lvl] and lo <= buy_levels[lvl]: buy_fills[lvl] = True positions.append(('long', buy_levels[lvl])) fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT trades += 1 for lvl in range(GRID_LEVELS): if not sell_fills[lvl] and hi >= sell_levels[lvl]: sell_fills[lvl] = True positions.append(('short', sell_levels[lvl])) fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT trades += 1 for lvl in range(GRID_LEVELS): if buy_fills[lvl] and sell_fills[lvl]: spread = sell_levels[lvl] - buy_levels[lvl] qty = (POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE) / buy_levels[lvl] pnl += qty * spread fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT * 2 buy_fills[lvl] = False sell_fills[lvl] = False round_trips += 1 positions = [p for p in positions if not (p[0] == 'long' and abs(p[1] - buy_levels[lvl]) < 1e-10)] positions = [p for p in positions if not (p[0] == 'short' and abs(p[1] - sell_levels[lvl]) < 1e-10)] unrealized = 0 for side, entry_px in positions: qty = (POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE) / entry_px if side == 'long': unrealized += qty * (price - entry_px) else: unrealized += qty * (entry_px - price) if pnl + unrealized - fees < -max_loss and positions: for side, entry_px in positions: qty = (POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE) / entry_px if side == 'long': pnl += qty * (price - entry_px) else: pnl += qty * (entry_px - price) fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT positions = [] close_reason = 'max_loss' break if positions: price = df_1m['close'].iloc[min(end_idx, len(df_1m) - 1)] for side, entry_px in positions: qty = (POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE) / entry_px if side == 'long': pnl += qty * (price - entry_px) else: pnl += qty * (entry_px - price) fees += POSITION_SIZE_USD * LEVERAGE * FEE_PCT net = pnl - fees if trades == 0: return None return { 'pnl': round(net, 4), 'trades': trades, 'round_trips': round_trips, 'fees': round(fees, 4), 'close_reason': close_reason, } # ============================================================ # MAIN # ============================================================ if __name__ == "__main__": print("=" * 75) print(" OPTIMAL GRID — 0.3% spacing + filters") print(f" {len(SYMBOLS)} coins | {DAYS_BACK}d | 10x | 8 lvl × $3 × 0.3%") print("=" * 75) # Per-combo results combo_results = {c['name']: [] for c in COMBOS} for sym in SYMBOLS: print(f"\n 📊 {sym}...", end=" ", flush=True) df_1m = fetch_klines(sym, '1m', DAYS_BACK) if len(df_1m) < 1000: print("skip") continue df_natr5 = calc_natr_5m(df_1m) df_15m = fetch_klines(sym, '15m', DAYS_BACK) df_15m = calc_screener(df_15m) df_15m['sw_score'] = df_15m.apply(sideways_score, axis=1) natr_lookup = df_natr5.set_index('timestamp')['natr_5m'] # Also get range_pos from 15m for combo E rp_lookup = df_15m.set_index('timestamp')['range_pos'] i = 100 win_count = 0 while i + SESSION_CANDLES < len(df_1m): ts = df_1m['timestamp'].iloc[i] # Get NATR nm = natr_lookup.index <= ts if nm.sum() == 0: i += SESSION_CANDLES + SESSION_COOLDOWN continue current_natr = natr_lookup.loc[nm].iloc[-1] if pd.isna(current_natr): i += SESSION_CANDLES + SESSION_COOLDOWN continue # Get score & range_pos sm = df_15m['timestamp'] <= ts if sm.sum() == 0: i += SESSION_CANDLES + SESSION_COOLDOWN continue scr_row = df_15m.loc[sm].iloc[-1] score = scr_row['sw_score'] range_pos = scr_row['range_pos'] if not pd.isna(scr_row['range_pos']) else 0.5 # Run grid once (same for all combos — same spacing) result = run_grid_session(df_1m, i) if result: result['symbol'] = sym result['natr_5m'] = round(current_natr, 3) result['sw_score'] = round(score, 1) result['range_pos'] = round(range_pos, 2) result['ts'] = str(ts) # Assign to matching combos for c in COMBOS: if (score >= c['score_min'] and c['natr_min'] <= current_natr <= c['natr_max'] and c['rp_min'] <= range_pos <= c['rp_max']): combo_results[c['name']].append(result) win_count += 1 i += SESSION_CANDLES + SESSION_COOLDOWN print(f"{win_count} windows") # ============================================================ # REPORT # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 75) print(" 🏆 РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ — СРАВНЕНИЕ КОМБИНАЦИЙ ФИЛЬТРОВ") print("=" * 75) print(f"\n {'Combo':<32} {'Sess':>5} {'WR':>6} {'PnL':>10} {'Avg':>9} {'$/day':>7} {'RTs':>5} {'ML':>4}") print(f" {'─'*78}") best_name = None best_avg = -999 for c in COMBOS: name = c['name'] sess = combo_results[name] if not sess: print(f" {name:<32} {'—':>5}") continue total_pnl = sum(s['pnl'] for s in sess) wins = len([s for s in sess if s['pnl'] > 0]) wr = 100 * wins / len(sess) avg = total_pnl / len(sess) rts = sum(s['round_trips'] for s in sess) ml = len([s for s in sess if s['close_reason'] == 'max_loss']) per_day = total_pnl / DAYS_BACK emoji = '🟢' if total_pnl > 0 else '🔴' print(f" {emoji} {name:<30} {len(sess):>5} {wr:>5.0f}% ${total_pnl:>8.2f} ${avg:>7.4f} ${per_day:>5.2f} {rts:>5} {ml:>4}") if avg > best_avg and c['name'] != 'BASELINE: no filter': best_avg = avg best_name = name # Detailed analysis of best combo if best_name: print(f"\n{'='*75}") print(f" 🥇 ЛУЧШИЙ: {best_name}") print(f"{'='*75}") sess = combo_results[best_name] total_pnl = sum(s['pnl'] for s in sess) wins = [s for s in sess if s['pnl'] > 0] losses = [s for s in sess if s['pnl'] <= 0] print(f" Sessions: {len(sess)} | WR: {100*len(wins)/len(sess):.0f}%") print(f" Total PnL: ${total_pnl:.4f} | Per day: ${total_pnl/DAYS_BACK:.2f}") print(f" Per week: ${total_pnl/DAYS_BACK*7:.2f} | Per month (est): ${total_pnl/DAYS_BACK*30:.2f}") if wins: print(f" Avg win: ${sum(s['pnl'] for s in wins)/len(wins):.4f}") if losses: print(f" Avg loss: ${sum(s['pnl'] for s in losses)/len(losses):.4f}") # Profit factor gross_wins = sum(s['pnl'] for s in wins) if wins else 0 gross_losses = abs(sum(s['pnl'] for s in losses)) if losses else 1 pf = gross_wins / gross_losses if gross_losses > 0 else 0 print(f" Profit factor: {pf:.2f}") # Equity curve stats equity = [0] for s in sess: equity.append(equity[-1] + s['pnl']) eq = np.array(equity) peak = np.maximum.accumulate(eq) dd = eq - peak max_dd = dd.min() print(f" Max drawdown: ${max_dd:.4f}") print(f" Final equity: ${eq[-1]:.4f}") # Per-symbol print(f"\n Per-symbol:") print(f" {'Symbol':<12} {'Sess':>5} {'WR':>6} {'PnL':>10} {'RTs':>5}") print(f" {'─'*38}") syms = sorted(set(s['symbol'] for s in sess)) for sym in syms: sub = [s for s in sess if s['symbol'] == sym] tp = sum(s['pnl'] for s in sub) w = len([s for s in sub if s['pnl'] > 0]) wr = 100 * w / len(sub) if sub else 0 rt = sum(s['round_trips'] for s in sub) e = '🟢' if tp > 0 else '🔴' print(f" {e} {sym:<10} {len(sub):>5} {wr:>5.0f}% ${tp:>8.2f} {rt:>5}") # Time-of-day analysis print(f"\n By hour (UTC):") hour_data = {} for s in sess: h = pd.Timestamp(s['ts']).hour if h not in hour_data: hour_data[h] = [] hour_data[h].append(s['pnl']) print(f" {'Hour':>4} {'Sess':>5} {'WR':>6} {'PnL':>10}") print(f" {'─'*27}") for h in sorted(hour_data.keys()): vals = hour_data[h] tp = sum(vals) w = len([v for v in vals if v > 0]) wr = 100 * w / len(vals) if vals else 0 e = '🟢' if tp > 0 else '⚪' print(f" {e} {h:>3}h {len(vals):>5} {wr:>5.0f}% ${tp:>8.3f}") # Save output = { 'config': { 'symbols': SYMBOLS, 'days_back': DAYS_BACK, 'grid_levels': GRID_LEVELS, 'spacing': GRID_SPACING_PCT, 'position_size': POSITION_SIZE_USD, 'leverage': LEVERAGE, }, 'combos': {name: { 'sessions': len(combo_results[name]), 'total_pnl': round(sum(s['pnl'] for s in combo_results[name]), 4) if combo_results[name] else 0, 'win_rate': round(100 * len([s for s in combo_results[name] if s['pnl'] > 0]) / max(len(combo_results[name]), 1), 1), } for name in combo_results}, 'best_combo': best_name, 'tested_at': datetime.now().isoformat(), } out_path = Path(__file__).parent / 'results_optimal_grid.json' with open(out_path, 'w') as f: json.dump(output, f, indent=2) print(f"\n💾 {out_path}")